If you've read my golden rules of betting you will know that I am very careful about hedging or closing winning positions. With the Berdych v Djoko match we have an even chance of picking up 78pts if the Czech wins the match for our 3pt place bet. (Let alone winning the trophy). Therefore we need to look at Djoko's prospects. The arguments for a Djoko victory include:

1. Higher seed at three v Berdych at 12.
2. Djoko has won a Grand Slam, Berdych has not been to a GS final.
3. H2H is 2-0 to Djoko and Berdych has never even won a set from the Serbian.
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When you read the above you may wonder how Berdych can win but the latter has improved significantly this year (which of course prompted the 50/1 trade) and Djoko, by his standards, has had a poor year. I don't think we will quite get evens Djocko so I'm going to take 16.5pts at 10/11 with Skybet for Djoko to win the match. Please note you should NOT have this bet unless you have had the 50/1 ew Berdych to the recommended stake.

In contrast to the above large stake I'm having 2pts on Pironkova at 2/1 (Bet365, Bodog, Boyles) to beat Vera Zvonareva today. If you listened to Tracey Austin the other night you'd think Zvonareva had a "gimme". However she is known as a bottler. Everyone is talking of her "courage" in getting to the semi but Kimmy handed her the last match (Vera did not have to serve for it) and Janko retired at 0-3 in the match before that. How about the H2H? They've met once (in Moscow last year) and Pironkova won 6-0 6-2. If Vera wins the first set it might also be worth looking at Pironkova's price on betfair. Vera is always capable of a collapse!